Roche awakens ($ROG.SW): A deep dive into their plan to play in the $130 billion obesity market

The Swiss giant just laid out its plan to conquer the $130B obesity market. I am including my revenue, EBIT, and EPS estimates and what the market is missing.

Introduction

Roche’s 2025 Pharma Day reinforced what many long-term investors have suspected: the Swiss pharma giant is quietly positioning itself as one of the most diversified innovation leaders in global healthcare. The battle for the obesity market, projected to surpass

$130 billion by 2030, has been a two-horse race. But while Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been sprinting, another large pharmaco has been building an arsenal.

What stood out this year was Roche’s clear commitment to obesity—an area once dominated by the duopoly but now rapidly becoming a multi-player global market. While obesity rightly captured the headlines, Roche also showcased meaningful progress across oncology, neurology, immunology, and hematology. The message was clear: Roche’s pipeline is no longer just about defending mature franchises—it is about creating the next generation of blockbusters.