Great analysis as usual! - Correct me if I am wrong, but Novo holds an edge with its first-mover advantage in oral GLP-1s, stronger supply chain scalability, and higher gross margins. If its oral Wegovy launches ahead of Lilly’s Orforglipron, it could dominate the next wave of obesity treatment. With a more cost-efficient pipeline expansion and faster global rollout, Novo may offer better near-term upside and risk-adjusted returns than Lilly. I still prefer Novo over Lilly, for this and other things, specially their more we could say humanistic approach, not only in leadership, but also socially.
Yes, Novo has an oral GLP-1, Rybelsus, however, this drug is only approved for Type 2 Diabetes and not for Obesity / weight loss. There is quite a large difference in dosage strength between Rybelsus and Wegovy due to the way the two drugs are delivered (oral vs injection) and the subsequent bioavailability. Rybelsus needs a much higher dose because the body absorbs only a tiny fraction of the drug, while Wegovy’s injection delivers nearly all of the drug directly into the bloodstream.
We will see both Novo and Lilly innovate a lot in Obesity as they have done in Diabetes. While Obesity is the current field of interest, both companies will move beyond Obesity with their respective technology platforms and target other areas. Some of these areas have huge potential be it cardiovascular, Alzheimer's, and even some types of cancer. The future for both companies is pretty bright in my view.
From a risk-reward point of view, I also prefer Novo, not least due to the current share price level of Novo. Admittedly, I also have a bias towards Novo due to its country of origin :-) and more in-depth knowledge of the company, but I also like tit for the same reasons you highlight above.
Great analysis as usual! - Correct me if I am wrong, but Novo holds an edge with its first-mover advantage in oral GLP-1s, stronger supply chain scalability, and higher gross margins. If its oral Wegovy launches ahead of Lilly’s Orforglipron, it could dominate the next wave of obesity treatment. With a more cost-efficient pipeline expansion and faster global rollout, Novo may offer better near-term upside and risk-adjusted returns than Lilly. I still prefer Novo over Lilly, for this and other things, specially their more we could say humanistic approach, not only in leadership, but also socially.
Yes, Novo has an oral GLP-1, Rybelsus, however, this drug is only approved for Type 2 Diabetes and not for Obesity / weight loss. There is quite a large difference in dosage strength between Rybelsus and Wegovy due to the way the two drugs are delivered (oral vs injection) and the subsequent bioavailability. Rybelsus needs a much higher dose because the body absorbs only a tiny fraction of the drug, while Wegovy’s injection delivers nearly all of the drug directly into the bloodstream.
We will see both Novo and Lilly innovate a lot in Obesity as they have done in Diabetes. While Obesity is the current field of interest, both companies will move beyond Obesity with their respective technology platforms and target other areas. Some of these areas have huge potential be it cardiovascular, Alzheimer's, and even some types of cancer. The future for both companies is pretty bright in my view.
From a risk-reward point of view, I also prefer Novo, not least due to the current share price level of Novo. Admittedly, I also have a bias towards Novo due to its country of origin :-) and more in-depth knowledge of the company, but I also like tit for the same reasons you highlight above.
Thanks for asking!